Jiangyin Mitoo Precise Co.,Ltd.

Jiangyin Mitoo Precise Co.,Ltd.

Analysis of the Cold-Rolled Sheet Market

2025 08/21

Starting from August, galvanized sheet inventory began to rise. As of August 15, 2025, Mystee statistics showed that the social inventory of galvanized sheet was 113.43 million tons, with a cumulative increase for four consecutive weeks. Moreover, since March, the export volume of galvanized sheet has started to decline, and it has decreased month-on-month for three consecutive months. Although the monthly export of cold-rolled sheet has decreased, its proportion in exports compared to production is not significant. On the other hand, galvanized sheet mainly serves the construction industry, while enterprises serving the automotive and home appliance industries account for a relatively small proportion. Meanwhile, cold-rolled sheet mainly serves the manufacturing industry, resulting in a further narrowing of the price gap.

Although the current cold and hot sheet price gap has widened, it remains within a fluctuation range of 400-500 yuan/ton, and there is little possibility of further expansion. This price gap structure mainly stems from the market pattern of "a mutual game between cost support and weak demand", and it is unlikely to be fundamentally improved in the short term. The slow accumulation of cold-rolled sheet inventory indicates that the short-term accumulation direction is relatively clear, reflecting the current imbalance in the supply and demand situation. Currently, the main downstream industries such as automobiles, home appliances, and machinery have shown no particularly outstanding performance in the past month, making it difficult to strongly stimulate the demand for cold-rolled sheet. Based on these circumstances, the author believes that the market is expected to continue to fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the cold and hot sheet price gap fluctuating within the low range of 400-500 yuan/ton. The demand side is difficult to significantly improve, and the adjustment rhythm of the supply side will become a key variable. In the medium and long term, the market trend depends on the process of supply and demand rebalancing. If steel mills can continue to reduce production, it can alleviate some supply pressure, and the price may gradually stabilize and rebound, and the price gap relationship may also be restored. However, the demand side is unlikely to have an unexpected performance, thus limiting the rebound height.