The current cold-rolled sheet and coil market presents a structural contradiction of "high capacity and low inventory". The overall capacity of cold-rolling is sufficient, and the production load of steel mills is relatively high, but the actual circulation resources are tight. During the same period, both social inventories and steel mill inventories were at a low level. Particularly, the circulation of common steel resources decreased compared to the previous two years, while the order intake of special steel was good and the production proportion was high, which provided some support for the price of cold-rolled steel. However, from the perspective of macro policies, the US tariff policy may promote the shift of cold-rolled steel exports to domestic sales, and the increase in the return of domestic cold-rolled steel resources may suppress the spot market price of common steel in China. However, special steel has been relatively less affected due to the strong domestic demand.
Low inventory is not a health signal. We need to be vigilant against the risk of another mismatch between supply and demand. It is suggested that market participants and steel mills optimize production scheduling, balance the proportion of special steel and common steel, and avoid excessive reliance on a single market. Strengthen the research and development of high-strength steel technology and consolidate the advantages in the high-end market. Traders purchase common steel materials as needed to avoid inventory overstock. They pay attention to the order dynamics of terminal enterprises. Carbon Steel Coil；Alloy Steel Coil；Mild Steel CoilTerminal enterprises plan their procurement plans in advance and lock in the long-term negotiated prices of special steel. The true recovery of the industry needs to wait for the confirmation of three signals: the stabilization of the real estate market, the recovery of manufacturing investment, and the restoration of stable growth in the export market. Before this, maintaining a cautious business strategy will be the key to survival and development.