Hot Rolled Steel Strip industry information involves many aspects, including market supply and demand situation, price trend, policy impact and technical development. Here is a detailed analysis of the current hot rolled steel coil industry information:
1. Market supply and demand
1. Supply side:
In the first half of 2024, the supply of Hot Rolled Coil remained at a relatively high level, especially after entering May, the weekly output of hot rolled coil has been more than 3.2 million tons.
Increase over the same period in 2023.
· According to Mysteel research data, June 2024
On the 26th, 37 hot rolled coil production enterprises monitored a total of 64 production lines, the actual number of 54, the overall operating rate of 84.38%; The capacity utilization rate of steel mills was 82.23% this week.
With the recovery of steel profits and increase power, Hot Rolled Steel Coil production is expected to continue to maintain at a high level. However, the pressure of limiting production on the policy side may also impose certain constraints on production growth.
2. The demand side:
In the first half of the year, the demand for hot rolled coil experienced fluctuations.
From January to March, demand weakened, leading to a decline in prices;
In May, demand is expected to strengthen, pushing up prices; However, the price decline since May is mainly due to the lack of effective release of demand.
In the second half of the year, infrastructure demand is expected to start, and the demand for machinery and manufacturing industries is also expected to remain strong and enter a replenishment cycle. At the same time, although the real estate demand continues to be weak, the positive factors on the policy side may continue to be released, forming a short-term positive for steel prices.
In terms of exports, steel exports increased significantly in the first half of the year, becoming an important support point for demand. In the second half of the year, unless the policy changes, there is a high probability of continuing high export volume.
II. Price trends
1. Current Price:
Take Ningbo Iron & Steel Co., Ltd as an example, on July 22nd, Ningbo Iron & Steel Co., Ltd adjusted the ex-factory price of HRC, in August, the price of carbon HRC decreased by 300 yuan compared with the previous period, and the ex-factory price of 5.5mmQ235 is 4000 yuan / ton, with low alloy price increase
120 yuan / ton.
2. Future Predictions:
Comprehensive multi-party information, the price of Hot Rolled Coil may show a strong trend of shock in the second half of 2024. On the one hand, it is difficult for the supply side to increase significantly under policy pressure; On the other hand, the demand side is expected to be optimistic with the support of infrastructure, machinery and manufacturing.
However, it should also be noted that factors such as the continuous high operation of inventories and the rise of overseas trade protectionism may put some pressure on prices.
III. POLICY IMPLICATIONS
1. Export Tax Refund Policy:
From 2020, the export tax rebate rate of some steel products will be raised to 13%, which will strongly support the export of Hot Rolled Steel and other steel products.
2. Restrictions on Policy:
The crude steel reduction policy may restrict the hot rolled steel output, and then affect the market supply and price.
IV. TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS
· The Carbon Steel Coil industry is continuously innovating in process, equipment and products. For example, hot strip mills have made significant progress in shape, thickness accuracy, and precise control of temperature and performance.
With the continuous improvement of technology, the quality of Hot Rolled Steel Coil will be further improved to meet the diversified needs of economic development. In summary, the Cold Rolled Steel Strip industry will face a complex and changeable market environment in the second half of 2024. Under the combined effect of supply and demand, price trends, policy impact and technological development, the industry will show new development trends and opportunities.
